25-Nov-2006
X Factor 2006 - Tartan army marches on.....
Well..... I wasn't brave enough in my betting tonight.
I did say in my earlier X Factor blog entry that Ray had a winning genre and if he could demonstrate the talent then he would have the winning formula based upon the grannie vote.
Although Ray was favourite to exit the show tonight, had I been brave enough, I should have taken him as a good lay bet (taking bets that Ray would not be evicted) on the eviction tonight at odds of ~2/1.
Although a powerful stage performance with great stage presence tonight, Ray did not demonstrate great vocals, but he did pack a popular punch with a decent overall performance of an Elvis number and the popularity and age of the track (linking to the Grannies) was probably what carried him through.
However, my biggest regret and disappointment is that I did not follow my instincts and my heart as I discussed with my wife before the show..... that Ben was a value bet to be evicted. All polls show that Ben is in either in a "love him" or "hate him" category, suggesting that his vote would have been split. I thought that he could be a great bet to be in the bottom two at ~70/1 and that his current 5/1 odds to win the entire show would apear to offer poor value even although he had earlier superlative performances.
Ben is another act that is falling into the "one-trick pony" category and I think that will count against him. Given that he has ended uo in the bottom two (something that the MacDonalds have avoided to date), there must be a decent chance of him ending up in another sing-off next week.
Gutting it is, but had I taken Betfair's opportunity to bet in play, I could have bet at ~70/1 on Ben to be evicted and later to have layed at 5/1 during the sing off, converting a £1 bet to a ~£17 lay... making £16 on a £1 bet.
Why is hindsight such a wonderful thing?
The MacDonalds continue to power on fulfilling my suggestion of meeting the grannie vote...I also do not discount the power of any Scottish vote that may exist.....is there any coincidence that the MacDonalds have been the 1st act declared safe in the last two shows..... there are rumours that they actually ARE polling the highest audience vote perhaps as dissent to Simon's disaparaging comments....though I personally take that with a pinch of salt.
The MacDonalds cover of the Proclaimers "500 miles" track this evening was probably their best showing in all of the live shows and was sufficient to meet my criteria for the grannie vote. It was truly a great performance by the duo and as it is such a powerful and emotive Scottish track, then I would think that it has bought considerable Scottish favour too. Louis's comment that it could take them to the final may not be too far wrong and in my opiniomn it would be an opportunituy wasted not to place a bet on them winning the contest (even if you do intend to lay later).
My tip is to bet the MacDonalds down to ~5/1-6/1 because of the voting pattern so far. Ben was thought to be the sole contender to Leona, but tonights bottom two showing must be a wake up call to him and I cannot think that his own 5/1 showing is good value at all.... the English vote must be split across the remaining 3 acts whereas there must now be a strong likelihood that Scotland is getting behind the McDonalds following extremely strong performances over the last two weeks.
Leona has to be considered the outstanding cabndidate to win, but at odds of 30/100, I cannot consider her good value at this time.
For me, the best value now has to be the McDonalds; bet them down to ~5/1-~6/1 and look to lay them when their odds collapse after Ray (the "one-trick pony") is booted out next week.
As you will see from my side panel. I do recommend Betfair for a little home flutter, but like investments, only bet what you can afford to lose... at the end of the day, the bets you make are your choice and I don't want to recommend anything that should get you in any financial difficulty.
You should easily beat the odds available from the local bookie with Betfair ....combined with the opportunity to bet in play and "take your winnings" or "cut your losses" when things move against you, the day of the traditional bookie is dead in my opinion.
Bet wisely. not foolishly and you can have a little bit of fun...and should you have the courage of my convictions (that I neglected tonight) you might even make a nice little profit.
I did say in my earlier X Factor blog entry that Ray had a winning genre and if he could demonstrate the talent then he would have the winning formula based upon the grannie vote.
Although Ray was favourite to exit the show tonight, had I been brave enough, I should have taken him as a good lay bet (taking bets that Ray would not be evicted) on the eviction tonight at odds of ~2/1.
Although a powerful stage performance with great stage presence tonight, Ray did not demonstrate great vocals, but he did pack a popular punch with a decent overall performance of an Elvis number and the popularity and age of the track (linking to the Grannies) was probably what carried him through.
However, my biggest regret and disappointment is that I did not follow my instincts and my heart as I discussed with my wife before the show..... that Ben was a value bet to be evicted. All polls show that Ben is in either in a "love him" or "hate him" category, suggesting that his vote would have been split. I thought that he could be a great bet to be in the bottom two at ~70/1 and that his current 5/1 odds to win the entire show would apear to offer poor value even although he had earlier superlative performances.
Ben is another act that is falling into the "one-trick pony" category and I think that will count against him. Given that he has ended uo in the bottom two (something that the MacDonalds have avoided to date), there must be a decent chance of him ending up in another sing-off next week.
Gutting it is, but had I taken Betfair's opportunity to bet in play, I could have bet at ~70/1 on Ben to be evicted and later to have layed at 5/1 during the sing off, converting a £1 bet to a ~£17 lay... making £16 on a £1 bet.
Why is hindsight such a wonderful thing?
The MacDonalds continue to power on fulfilling my suggestion of meeting the grannie vote...I also do not discount the power of any Scottish vote that may exist.....is there any coincidence that the MacDonalds have been the 1st act declared safe in the last two shows..... there are rumours that they actually ARE polling the highest audience vote perhaps as dissent to Simon's disaparaging comments....though I personally take that with a pinch of salt.
The MacDonalds cover of the Proclaimers "500 miles" track this evening was probably their best showing in all of the live shows and was sufficient to meet my criteria for the grannie vote. It was truly a great performance by the duo and as it is such a powerful and emotive Scottish track, then I would think that it has bought considerable Scottish favour too. Louis's comment that it could take them to the final may not be too far wrong and in my opiniomn it would be an opportunituy wasted not to place a bet on them winning the contest (even if you do intend to lay later).
My tip is to bet the MacDonalds down to ~5/1-6/1 because of the voting pattern so far. Ben was thought to be the sole contender to Leona, but tonights bottom two showing must be a wake up call to him and I cannot think that his own 5/1 showing is good value at all.... the English vote must be split across the remaining 3 acts whereas there must now be a strong likelihood that Scotland is getting behind the McDonalds following extremely strong performances over the last two weeks.
Leona has to be considered the outstanding cabndidate to win, but at odds of 30/100, I cannot consider her good value at this time.
For me, the best value now has to be the McDonalds; bet them down to ~5/1-~6/1 and look to lay them when their odds collapse after Ray (the "one-trick pony") is booted out next week.
As you will see from my side panel. I do recommend Betfair for a little home flutter, but like investments, only bet what you can afford to lose... at the end of the day, the bets you make are your choice and I don't want to recommend anything that should get you in any financial difficulty.
You should easily beat the odds available from the local bookie with Betfair ....combined with the opportunity to bet in play and "take your winnings" or "cut your losses" when things move against you, the day of the traditional bookie is dead in my opinion.
Bet wisely. not foolishly and you can have a little bit of fun...and should you have the courage of my convictions (that I neglected tonight) you might even make a nice little profit.
Labels: betting, MacDonalds, odds, Ray, value, X Factor
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