16-Dec-2006
X Factor Final 2006
What a final!!
I would not like to call it one way or the other.
Both Ray and Leona sang their hearts out tonight, and if you were to ask me who sang it moost note perfect, it would have to be Ray.
Leona is a wonderful and expressive talent, but sometimes her expressiveness in the softer passages comes through as a nervousness and does not carry great confidence.
Leona SHOULD win if it is all about the potential talent, but there is a nervousness within me that there will be more young ladies than men voting tonight, as per previous reality contests and real talent will not win through.
Don't get me wrong, Ray is extremely talented and in this final he has sung pitch perfect for probably the first time in the whole contest. but I don't see him as a recording star. There were people in the 60s & 70s that recorded these tracks far more capably than Ray can do at this time and I think the time has passed for someone to try and recreate the success of Dean Martin & Frank Sinatra.
If justice is to be served this evening Leona should walk the contest.
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I would not like to call it one way or the other.
Both Ray and Leona sang their hearts out tonight, and if you were to ask me who sang it moost note perfect, it would have to be Ray.
Leona is a wonderful and expressive talent, but sometimes her expressiveness in the softer passages comes through as a nervousness and does not carry great confidence.
Leona SHOULD win if it is all about the potential talent, but there is a nervousness within me that there will be more young ladies than men voting tonight, as per previous reality contests and real talent will not win through.
Don't get me wrong, Ray is extremely talented and in this final he has sung pitch perfect for probably the first time in the whole contest. but I don't see him as a recording star. There were people in the 60s & 70s that recorded these tracks far more capably than Ray can do at this time and I think the time has passed for someone to try and recreate the success of Dean Martin & Frank Sinatra.
If justice is to be served this evening Leona should walk the contest.
Labels: Final, Leona, Ray, X Factor
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10-Dec-2006
X Factor: Bet/Lay Tutorial = create a win-win outcome
I admit it, I bailed out on my bets with Ray.
I had written earlier about my theories that the more mature audience likely to be at home on a Saturday night would prefer the 50s & 60s material that Ray comes out with. There was strong precedent for that view of mine based upon looking at prior shows, but I chickened out.
If you did take my tip last week to get Ray into second place at the then odds of 10.5-11.5 and showed more courage than me and kept your bets in play till now, then the odds requested via BetFair for Ray are now ~4.3, but your bet still stands art the original odds. You have an opportunity to create a win-win situation whomever wins X Factor 2006.
As things stand, you win nothing if you only have that bet on Ray and he does not win X Factor.
If you have a BetFair account, then you could lay off right now for treble your original stake at the now lower odds requested - of course you only profit on others stakes if Ray loses.
I will now demonstrate a potentially better option if you prefer not to take too many risks and would like to be in a win-win situation:
If you took my tip and you now have a bet with odds of ~11 on Ray then you could lay (act as bookmaker to someone else wanting to bet on Ray) double your original Ray stake (If Ray wins you give up £20 x 3.3 [taking 1 off of the the current 4.3 odds requested - the first 1.0 represents the stake that would be returned should you win and is not actually winnings] = £66 0ut of the £100 winnings from your first bet, still giving you £34 winnings on the original £10 bet should Ray win outright = 340% profit on the original £10 stake.
If you take that £20 that another punter is giving you on Ray and bet it on Leona now at 1.33 you win £20 x 0.33 [again, take 1 away from the 1.33 current decimal odds to separate the basic stake from the winnings fraction] = £6.66 + an extra £10 stake given tou you as a bet on Ray from what started out as an original £10 stake = 167% profit on the original £10 stake should Leona win.
So to recap, if you followed my tip on Ray last week, then you are now in a position to create a win-win position with a guaranteed minimum 167% return on your stake over just 2 weeks.
By now you may have figured that you could adjust the figures above to tweak your own book on the outcome to get a different guaranteed minimum.....perhaps you would choose to lay only the original stake and settle on a guaranteed minimum 33% and carry extra risk and potential reward from Ray.
Above is demonstrative of the benefits of avoiding traditional bookmakers where they only let you bet for an event and not against (laying) it and have to ride it out all the way to the end...there may be other sites that let you do juggle in this way, but BetFair is the only one that I am familiar with and it gives an added dimension to any betting that you do.
My bets are all very modest and just for fun, but it is techniques like these that help bookmakers win most of the time...why not play the same game that they do?
(this article has been edited since first published to correct an error whereby I neglected to include the important fact that the extra £10 stake collected from laying on Ray would also convert to a 100% profit on betting Leona should she win)
Link
I had written earlier about my theories that the more mature audience likely to be at home on a Saturday night would prefer the 50s & 60s material that Ray comes out with. There was strong precedent for that view of mine based upon looking at prior shows, but I chickened out.
If you did take my tip last week to get Ray into second place at the then odds of 10.5-11.5 and showed more courage than me and kept your bets in play till now, then the odds requested via BetFair for Ray are now ~4.3, but your bet still stands art the original odds. You have an opportunity to create a win-win situation whomever wins X Factor 2006.
As things stand, you win nothing if you only have that bet on Ray and he does not win X Factor.
If you have a BetFair account, then you could lay off right now for treble your original stake at the now lower odds requested - of course you only profit on others stakes if Ray loses.
I will now demonstrate a potentially better option if you prefer not to take too many risks and would like to be in a win-win situation:
If you took my tip and you now have a bet with odds of ~11 on Ray then you could lay (act as bookmaker to someone else wanting to bet on Ray) double your original Ray stake (If Ray wins you give up £20 x 3.3 [taking 1 off of the the current 4.3 odds requested - the first 1.0 represents the stake that would be returned should you win and is not actually winnings] = £66 0ut of the £100 winnings from your first bet, still giving you £34 winnings on the original £10 bet should Ray win outright = 340% profit on the original £10 stake.
If you take that £20 that another punter is giving you on Ray and bet it on Leona now at 1.33 you win £20 x 0.33 [again, take 1 away from the 1.33 current decimal odds to separate the basic stake from the winnings fraction] = £6.66 + an extra £10 stake given tou you as a bet on Ray from what started out as an original £10 stake = 167% profit on the original £10 stake should Leona win.
So to recap, if you followed my tip on Ray last week, then you are now in a position to create a win-win position with a guaranteed minimum 167% return on your stake over just 2 weeks.
By now you may have figured that you could adjust the figures above to tweak your own book on the outcome to get a different guaranteed minimum.....perhaps you would choose to lay only the original stake and settle on a guaranteed minimum 33% and carry extra risk and potential reward from Ray.
Above is demonstrative of the benefits of avoiding traditional bookmakers where they only let you bet for an event and not against (laying) it and have to ride it out all the way to the end...there may be other sites that let you do juggle in this way, but BetFair is the only one that I am familiar with and it gives an added dimension to any betting that you do.
My bets are all very modest and just for fun, but it is techniques like these that help bookmakers win most of the time...why not play the same game that they do?
(this article has been edited since first published to correct an error whereby I neglected to include the important fact that the extra £10 stake collected from laying on Ray would also convert to a 100% profit on betting Leona should she win)
Labels: Betfair, betting, Leona, Ray, X Factor
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08-Dec-2006
X Factor: Who goes 9th December?
Last week in this column (X Factor - The Grannie Vote continues.....), I tipped Ray at odds then of 10.5-11.5 to end up in 2nd place to Leona in the X Factor.
This was based upon the public vote two weeks ago that put Ben in the bottom two, showing Ray more popular. The inference being that all things being equal, one would expect Ray to end up ahead of Ben to make the final two.
As I gave out my tip, I feel that I should share my new opinions.
Searching around the internet this evening, the polls (e.g. on DigitalSpy Week 9: Favourite Act and Week 9: Least Favourite Act ) are putting Ben and Ray quite a bit closer than I expected with Leona way out in front to win by a considerable margin.
It may now be a risky strategy to continue to hold bets on Ray.
Whilst my theories around the 'mature' vote have held good so far, the safest approach right now may be to lay off via BetFair at current odds of 8.6 - if you took my advice last week and bet at the odds available when I posted, then if you lay off all your current potential winnings on Ray, you will have made up to 35% profit on your stake in 1 week.
35% profit over one week aint bad.
Good luck if you choose to stick with Ray - my money is still on Leona to win overall.
Link
This was based upon the public vote two weeks ago that put Ben in the bottom two, showing Ray more popular. The inference being that all things being equal, one would expect Ray to end up ahead of Ben to make the final two.
As I gave out my tip, I feel that I should share my new opinions.
Searching around the internet this evening, the polls (e.g. on DigitalSpy Week 9: Favourite Act and Week 9: Least Favourite Act ) are putting Ben and Ray quite a bit closer than I expected with Leona way out in front to win by a considerable margin.
It may now be a risky strategy to continue to hold bets on Ray.
Whilst my theories around the 'mature' vote have held good so far, the safest approach right now may be to lay off via BetFair at current odds of 8.6 - if you took my advice last week and bet at the odds available when I posted, then if you lay off all your current potential winnings on Ray, you will have made up to 35% profit on your stake in 1 week.
35% profit over one week aint bad.
Good luck if you choose to stick with Ray - my money is still on Leona to win overall.
Labels: Ben, Leona, Ray, X Factor
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02-Dec-2006
X Factor - The Grannie Vote continues.....
Aaaaaargh......
I definitely lost a chance tonight to recoup some of my losses on Dionne, Kerri and Nikkita.
It wasn't clear to me whether it was judges or public vote tonight. I had made up my mind following the first show that if it was judges vote it was time to lay off my MacDonalds bet and leave the risk to someone else, having noted that it was likely to be between Ray and the MacDonalds tonight and the neutral judge (Sharon) had been glowing over Ray and somewhat neutral towards the MacDonalds (Is Sharon a grannie yet.....?).
Unfortunately, by the time the second show came around and made it clear that it was down to a public vote, I did not value the odds that I would have had to lay off at. But that is history now....I managed to make some money on the eviction market with Ben's first song and bet at 6.2 that he would be evicted and layed off within two minutes at 4.5 for a 170% profit should he be evicted but actually at that point having no risk and effectively a free bet. That meant that I could place some additional bets guaranteeing a win whatever the result......that was sweet.
Of course, you cannot do those bets at traditional bookmakers.; that is why I recommend BetFair, allowing you to make in-play bets from your armchair and trade your position.
That said, I am really annoyed again that my tips around Ray defeat my own intellect. His version of "My Way" was the perfect vote winner for those of a certain generation....at least I layed off at 20s versus a 34 bet earlier this evening, but I could have done better.
If, like me, you think that the "older" generation could have a significant say in this years bet, then consider an important fact with audience vote over this X Factor season, namely:
the only week that we know what position Ray polled vs. Ben was last week when Ben found himself in the bottom two position with Eton Road - Ray was above that. So....on last weeks voting with only MacDonalds & Eton Road out of the running now, Ray was ahead of Ben.
Based on that, my vote would be on Ben to be evicted next week, letting the pocket rocket soar on and throw Ben out of the competion.
Ray is currently at odds of 10.5 (9.5/1 against winning) on Betfair right now, and if the "Grannie" vote continues next week and Ben is evicted next, then I would expect you to be able to lay off your bet for double money. That is what I am considering right now.
Note: my expressions here are just my own personal opinion rather than any professional opinion and I don't encourage anyone to play with any money that they cannot afford to lose.
I would especially point out that I do not expect Ray to have any chance of winning the show outright - I think Leona has it sewn up.....what I am contemplating is effectively a bet into second place, and as far as I am aware Betfair is the only bookmaker that you can do a bet/lay arrangement such as I am considering.
My "grannie" vote certainly appears to have merit based on the last three-four weeks results.
Let me know what you think before I sink my profits back in.
Update 02 Dec 22:20 GMT: Rays odds have drifted to an even better value bet at 11.5 - I think this could be a real value bet vs. Ben into 2nd place if you lay via Betfair considering Ben finishing behind Ray in a public
Link
I definitely lost a chance tonight to recoup some of my losses on Dionne, Kerri and Nikkita.
It wasn't clear to me whether it was judges or public vote tonight. I had made up my mind following the first show that if it was judges vote it was time to lay off my MacDonalds bet and leave the risk to someone else, having noted that it was likely to be between Ray and the MacDonalds tonight and the neutral judge (Sharon) had been glowing over Ray and somewhat neutral towards the MacDonalds (Is Sharon a grannie yet.....?).
Unfortunately, by the time the second show came around and made it clear that it was down to a public vote, I did not value the odds that I would have had to lay off at. But that is history now....I managed to make some money on the eviction market with Ben's first song and bet at 6.2 that he would be evicted and layed off within two minutes at 4.5 for a 170% profit should he be evicted but actually at that point having no risk and effectively a free bet. That meant that I could place some additional bets guaranteeing a win whatever the result......that was sweet.
Of course, you cannot do those bets at traditional bookmakers.; that is why I recommend BetFair, allowing you to make in-play bets from your armchair and trade your position.
That said, I am really annoyed again that my tips around Ray defeat my own intellect. His version of "My Way" was the perfect vote winner for those of a certain generation....at least I layed off at 20s versus a 34 bet earlier this evening, but I could have done better.
If, like me, you think that the "older" generation could have a significant say in this years bet, then consider an important fact with audience vote over this X Factor season, namely:
the only week that we know what position Ray polled vs. Ben was last week when Ben found himself in the bottom two position with Eton Road - Ray was above that. So....on last weeks voting with only MacDonalds & Eton Road out of the running now, Ray was ahead of Ben.
Based on that, my vote would be on Ben to be evicted next week, letting the pocket rocket soar on and throw Ben out of the competion.
Ray is currently at odds of 10.5 (9.5/1 against winning) on Betfair right now, and if the "Grannie" vote continues next week and Ben is evicted next, then I would expect you to be able to lay off your bet for double money. That is what I am considering right now.
Note: my expressions here are just my own personal opinion rather than any professional opinion and I don't encourage anyone to play with any money that they cannot afford to lose.
I would especially point out that I do not expect Ray to have any chance of winning the show outright - I think Leona has it sewn up.....what I am contemplating is effectively a bet into second place, and as far as I am aware Betfair is the only bookmaker that you can do a bet/lay arrangement such as I am considering.
My "grannie" vote certainly appears to have merit based on the last three-four weeks results.
Let me know what you think before I sink my profits back in.
Update 02 Dec 22:20 GMT: Rays odds have drifted to an even better value bet at 11.5 - I think this could be a real value bet vs. Ben into 2nd place if you lay via Betfair considering Ben finishing behind Ray in a public
Labels: Ben, grannie vote, Leona, MacDonalds, Ray, X Factor
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25-Nov-2006
X Factor 2006 - Tartan army marches on.....
Well..... I wasn't brave enough in my betting tonight.
I did say in my earlier X Factor blog entry that Ray had a winning genre and if he could demonstrate the talent then he would have the winning formula based upon the grannie vote.
Although Ray was favourite to exit the show tonight, had I been brave enough, I should have taken him as a good lay bet (taking bets that Ray would not be evicted) on the eviction tonight at odds of ~2/1.
Although a powerful stage performance with great stage presence tonight, Ray did not demonstrate great vocals, but he did pack a popular punch with a decent overall performance of an Elvis number and the popularity and age of the track (linking to the Grannies) was probably what carried him through.
However, my biggest regret and disappointment is that I did not follow my instincts and my heart as I discussed with my wife before the show..... that Ben was a value bet to be evicted. All polls show that Ben is in either in a "love him" or "hate him" category, suggesting that his vote would have been split. I thought that he could be a great bet to be in the bottom two at ~70/1 and that his current 5/1 odds to win the entire show would apear to offer poor value even although he had earlier superlative performances.
Ben is another act that is falling into the "one-trick pony" category and I think that will count against him. Given that he has ended uo in the bottom two (something that the MacDonalds have avoided to date), there must be a decent chance of him ending up in another sing-off next week.
Gutting it is, but had I taken Betfair's opportunity to bet in play, I could have bet at ~70/1 on Ben to be evicted and later to have layed at 5/1 during the sing off, converting a £1 bet to a ~£17 lay... making £16 on a £1 bet.
Why is hindsight such a wonderful thing?
The MacDonalds continue to power on fulfilling my suggestion of meeting the grannie vote...I also do not discount the power of any Scottish vote that may exist.....is there any coincidence that the MacDonalds have been the 1st act declared safe in the last two shows..... there are rumours that they actually ARE polling the highest audience vote perhaps as dissent to Simon's disaparaging comments....though I personally take that with a pinch of salt.
The MacDonalds cover of the Proclaimers "500 miles" track this evening was probably their best showing in all of the live shows and was sufficient to meet my criteria for the grannie vote. It was truly a great performance by the duo and as it is such a powerful and emotive Scottish track, then I would think that it has bought considerable Scottish favour too. Louis's comment that it could take them to the final may not be too far wrong and in my opiniomn it would be an opportunituy wasted not to place a bet on them winning the contest (even if you do intend to lay later).
My tip is to bet the MacDonalds down to ~5/1-6/1 because of the voting pattern so far. Ben was thought to be the sole contender to Leona, but tonights bottom two showing must be a wake up call to him and I cannot think that his own 5/1 showing is good value at all.... the English vote must be split across the remaining 3 acts whereas there must now be a strong likelihood that Scotland is getting behind the McDonalds following extremely strong performances over the last two weeks.
Leona has to be considered the outstanding cabndidate to win, but at odds of 30/100, I cannot consider her good value at this time.
For me, the best value now has to be the McDonalds; bet them down to ~5/1-~6/1 and look to lay them when their odds collapse after Ray (the "one-trick pony") is booted out next week.
As you will see from my side panel. I do recommend Betfair for a little home flutter, but like investments, only bet what you can afford to lose... at the end of the day, the bets you make are your choice and I don't want to recommend anything that should get you in any financial difficulty.
You should easily beat the odds available from the local bookie with Betfair ....combined with the opportunity to bet in play and "take your winnings" or "cut your losses" when things move against you, the day of the traditional bookie is dead in my opinion.
Bet wisely. not foolishly and you can have a little bit of fun...and should you have the courage of my convictions (that I neglected tonight) you might even make a nice little profit.
I did say in my earlier X Factor blog entry that Ray had a winning genre and if he could demonstrate the talent then he would have the winning formula based upon the grannie vote.
Although Ray was favourite to exit the show tonight, had I been brave enough, I should have taken him as a good lay bet (taking bets that Ray would not be evicted) on the eviction tonight at odds of ~2/1.
Although a powerful stage performance with great stage presence tonight, Ray did not demonstrate great vocals, but he did pack a popular punch with a decent overall performance of an Elvis number and the popularity and age of the track (linking to the Grannies) was probably what carried him through.
However, my biggest regret and disappointment is that I did not follow my instincts and my heart as I discussed with my wife before the show..... that Ben was a value bet to be evicted. All polls show that Ben is in either in a "love him" or "hate him" category, suggesting that his vote would have been split. I thought that he could be a great bet to be in the bottom two at ~70/1 and that his current 5/1 odds to win the entire show would apear to offer poor value even although he had earlier superlative performances.
Ben is another act that is falling into the "one-trick pony" category and I think that will count against him. Given that he has ended uo in the bottom two (something that the MacDonalds have avoided to date), there must be a decent chance of him ending up in another sing-off next week.
Gutting it is, but had I taken Betfair's opportunity to bet in play, I could have bet at ~70/1 on Ben to be evicted and later to have layed at 5/1 during the sing off, converting a £1 bet to a ~£17 lay... making £16 on a £1 bet.
Why is hindsight such a wonderful thing?
The MacDonalds continue to power on fulfilling my suggestion of meeting the grannie vote...I also do not discount the power of any Scottish vote that may exist.....is there any coincidence that the MacDonalds have been the 1st act declared safe in the last two shows..... there are rumours that they actually ARE polling the highest audience vote perhaps as dissent to Simon's disaparaging comments....though I personally take that with a pinch of salt.
The MacDonalds cover of the Proclaimers "500 miles" track this evening was probably their best showing in all of the live shows and was sufficient to meet my criteria for the grannie vote. It was truly a great performance by the duo and as it is such a powerful and emotive Scottish track, then I would think that it has bought considerable Scottish favour too. Louis's comment that it could take them to the final may not be too far wrong and in my opiniomn it would be an opportunituy wasted not to place a bet on them winning the contest (even if you do intend to lay later).
My tip is to bet the MacDonalds down to ~5/1-6/1 because of the voting pattern so far. Ben was thought to be the sole contender to Leona, but tonights bottom two showing must be a wake up call to him and I cannot think that his own 5/1 showing is good value at all.... the English vote must be split across the remaining 3 acts whereas there must now be a strong likelihood that Scotland is getting behind the McDonalds following extremely strong performances over the last two weeks.
Leona has to be considered the outstanding cabndidate to win, but at odds of 30/100, I cannot consider her good value at this time.
For me, the best value now has to be the McDonalds; bet them down to ~5/1-~6/1 and look to lay them when their odds collapse after Ray (the "one-trick pony") is booted out next week.
As you will see from my side panel. I do recommend Betfair for a little home flutter, but like investments, only bet what you can afford to lose... at the end of the day, the bets you make are your choice and I don't want to recommend anything that should get you in any financial difficulty.
You should easily beat the odds available from the local bookie with Betfair ....combined with the opportunity to bet in play and "take your winnings" or "cut your losses" when things move against you, the day of the traditional bookie is dead in my opinion.
Bet wisely. not foolishly and you can have a little bit of fun...and should you have the courage of my convictions (that I neglected tonight) you might even make a nice little profit.
Labels: betting, MacDonalds, odds, Ray, value, X Factor
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