08-Dec-2006
X Factor: Who goes 9th December?
Last week in this column (X Factor - The Grannie Vote continues.....), I tipped Ray at odds then of 10.5-11.5 to end up in 2nd place to Leona in the X Factor.
This was based upon the public vote two weeks ago that put Ben in the bottom two, showing Ray more popular. The inference being that all things being equal, one would expect Ray to end up ahead of Ben to make the final two.
As I gave out my tip, I feel that I should share my new opinions.
Searching around the internet this evening, the polls (e.g. on DigitalSpy Week 9: Favourite Act and Week 9: Least Favourite Act ) are putting Ben and Ray quite a bit closer than I expected with Leona way out in front to win by a considerable margin.
It may now be a risky strategy to continue to hold bets on Ray.
Whilst my theories around the 'mature' vote have held good so far, the safest approach right now may be to lay off via BetFair at current odds of 8.6 - if you took my advice last week and bet at the odds available when I posted, then if you lay off all your current potential winnings on Ray, you will have made up to 35% profit on your stake in 1 week.
35% profit over one week aint bad.
Good luck if you choose to stick with Ray - my money is still on Leona to win overall.
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This was based upon the public vote two weeks ago that put Ben in the bottom two, showing Ray more popular. The inference being that all things being equal, one would expect Ray to end up ahead of Ben to make the final two.
As I gave out my tip, I feel that I should share my new opinions.
Searching around the internet this evening, the polls (e.g. on DigitalSpy Week 9: Favourite Act and Week 9: Least Favourite Act ) are putting Ben and Ray quite a bit closer than I expected with Leona way out in front to win by a considerable margin.
It may now be a risky strategy to continue to hold bets on Ray.
Whilst my theories around the 'mature' vote have held good so far, the safest approach right now may be to lay off via BetFair at current odds of 8.6 - if you took my advice last week and bet at the odds available when I posted, then if you lay off all your current potential winnings on Ray, you will have made up to 35% profit on your stake in 1 week.
35% profit over one week aint bad.
Good luck if you choose to stick with Ray - my money is still on Leona to win overall.
Labels: Ben, Leona, Ray, X Factor
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02-Dec-2006
X Factor - The Grannie Vote continues.....
Aaaaaargh......
I definitely lost a chance tonight to recoup some of my losses on Dionne, Kerri and Nikkita.
It wasn't clear to me whether it was judges or public vote tonight. I had made up my mind following the first show that if it was judges vote it was time to lay off my MacDonalds bet and leave the risk to someone else, having noted that it was likely to be between Ray and the MacDonalds tonight and the neutral judge (Sharon) had been glowing over Ray and somewhat neutral towards the MacDonalds (Is Sharon a grannie yet.....?).
Unfortunately, by the time the second show came around and made it clear that it was down to a public vote, I did not value the odds that I would have had to lay off at. But that is history now....I managed to make some money on the eviction market with Ben's first song and bet at 6.2 that he would be evicted and layed off within two minutes at 4.5 for a 170% profit should he be evicted but actually at that point having no risk and effectively a free bet. That meant that I could place some additional bets guaranteeing a win whatever the result......that was sweet.
Of course, you cannot do those bets at traditional bookmakers.; that is why I recommend BetFair, allowing you to make in-play bets from your armchair and trade your position.
That said, I am really annoyed again that my tips around Ray defeat my own intellect. His version of "My Way" was the perfect vote winner for those of a certain generation....at least I layed off at 20s versus a 34 bet earlier this evening, but I could have done better.
If, like me, you think that the "older" generation could have a significant say in this years bet, then consider an important fact with audience vote over this X Factor season, namely:
the only week that we know what position Ray polled vs. Ben was last week when Ben found himself in the bottom two position with Eton Road - Ray was above that. So....on last weeks voting with only MacDonalds & Eton Road out of the running now, Ray was ahead of Ben.
Based on that, my vote would be on Ben to be evicted next week, letting the pocket rocket soar on and throw Ben out of the competion.
Ray is currently at odds of 10.5 (9.5/1 against winning) on Betfair right now, and if the "Grannie" vote continues next week and Ben is evicted next, then I would expect you to be able to lay off your bet for double money. That is what I am considering right now.
Note: my expressions here are just my own personal opinion rather than any professional opinion and I don't encourage anyone to play with any money that they cannot afford to lose.
I would especially point out that I do not expect Ray to have any chance of winning the show outright - I think Leona has it sewn up.....what I am contemplating is effectively a bet into second place, and as far as I am aware Betfair is the only bookmaker that you can do a bet/lay arrangement such as I am considering.
My "grannie" vote certainly appears to have merit based on the last three-four weeks results.
Let me know what you think before I sink my profits back in.
Update 02 Dec 22:20 GMT: Rays odds have drifted to an even better value bet at 11.5 - I think this could be a real value bet vs. Ben into 2nd place if you lay via Betfair considering Ben finishing behind Ray in a public
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I definitely lost a chance tonight to recoup some of my losses on Dionne, Kerri and Nikkita.
It wasn't clear to me whether it was judges or public vote tonight. I had made up my mind following the first show that if it was judges vote it was time to lay off my MacDonalds bet and leave the risk to someone else, having noted that it was likely to be between Ray and the MacDonalds tonight and the neutral judge (Sharon) had been glowing over Ray and somewhat neutral towards the MacDonalds (Is Sharon a grannie yet.....?).
Unfortunately, by the time the second show came around and made it clear that it was down to a public vote, I did not value the odds that I would have had to lay off at. But that is history now....I managed to make some money on the eviction market with Ben's first song and bet at 6.2 that he would be evicted and layed off within two minutes at 4.5 for a 170% profit should he be evicted but actually at that point having no risk and effectively a free bet. That meant that I could place some additional bets guaranteeing a win whatever the result......that was sweet.
Of course, you cannot do those bets at traditional bookmakers.; that is why I recommend BetFair, allowing you to make in-play bets from your armchair and trade your position.
That said, I am really annoyed again that my tips around Ray defeat my own intellect. His version of "My Way" was the perfect vote winner for those of a certain generation....at least I layed off at 20s versus a 34 bet earlier this evening, but I could have done better.
If, like me, you think that the "older" generation could have a significant say in this years bet, then consider an important fact with audience vote over this X Factor season, namely:
the only week that we know what position Ray polled vs. Ben was last week when Ben found himself in the bottom two position with Eton Road - Ray was above that. So....on last weeks voting with only MacDonalds & Eton Road out of the running now, Ray was ahead of Ben.
Based on that, my vote would be on Ben to be evicted next week, letting the pocket rocket soar on and throw Ben out of the competion.
Ray is currently at odds of 10.5 (9.5/1 against winning) on Betfair right now, and if the "Grannie" vote continues next week and Ben is evicted next, then I would expect you to be able to lay off your bet for double money. That is what I am considering right now.
Note: my expressions here are just my own personal opinion rather than any professional opinion and I don't encourage anyone to play with any money that they cannot afford to lose.
I would especially point out that I do not expect Ray to have any chance of winning the show outright - I think Leona has it sewn up.....what I am contemplating is effectively a bet into second place, and as far as I am aware Betfair is the only bookmaker that you can do a bet/lay arrangement such as I am considering.
My "grannie" vote certainly appears to have merit based on the last three-four weeks results.
Let me know what you think before I sink my profits back in.
Update 02 Dec 22:20 GMT: Rays odds have drifted to an even better value bet at 11.5 - I think this could be a real value bet vs. Ben into 2nd place if you lay via Betfair considering Ben finishing behind Ray in a public
Labels: Ben, grannie vote, Leona, MacDonalds, Ray, X Factor
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