BIG BAND WEEK

Big band week this week which stretches the acts considerably.

Olly

Bewitched – Steve Lawrence

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Olly‘s turn to open the show this week and what an opener. He performed the track like he was born in the Sinatra era. No signs of nerves leadiing to a very confident and polished performance.

Olly should be safe tonight.

Lloyd

Lloyd – Fly Me To The Moon – Frank Sinatra

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Lloyd took a battering last week for taking on a Leona Leis number and doing badly. Sadly, he didn’t fare any better this week with an extraordinarily shaky performance. Nor do I feel that he has a big enough and mature enough voice to take on bugger competitors this year.

Lloyd could be bottom two tonight  … subject to the performance of the acts that follow.

Miss Frank

That’s Life – Frank Sinatra

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With Louis Walsh’s return this week, can Miss Frank step up a gear?

I thoroughly enjoyed this performance which had Miss Frank’s own unique stamp on the song with a bit of jazz and a bit of rap thrown in for good measure. Keep this performance standard up and they can be a real contender.

Rachel

Proud Mary – Beyonce version

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Rachel has been singing nervously since the live shows started and failed to get viewer support leaving her languishing in the bottom two with only the judges saving her last week.

There is no question that Rachel is talented, but she needs a performance that the UK public can relate to better.

Tonights’s performance was like a different Rachel had come out on stage. We saw a very confident young woman deliver a really punchy strong performance. Is it enough to sweep away past bad reviews and to start a clean slate with the public? This performance deserves a safe passage.

Jamie

Angel Of Harlem – U2

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Jamie just doesn’t fail to deliver and tonight was no exception, but the song choice was stretching the definition of big band. Is Simon Cowell realising that Jamie is still little more than a rocker?

Jamie will be safe this week, but I can’t see him winning the contest.

Stacey

When You Wish Upon A Star – From Disney’s Pinnochio

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Stacey is the competitor that everyone just likes whether she speaks or sings.She seemed to lose her way a bit tonight though I can’t place my finger on the problem.  Stacey does need to find more confidence in coming weeks if she is to have any chance of winning the competition.

This has been one of the weaker performances of the night.

Danyl

Feeling Good – Muse version

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Danyl has shown the most natural talent for performance … or is it that he is comfortably extrovert?

For me, the song was a bit of a slow burn until we reached ignition but ended up with a bit of a damp squib. It wasn’t the greatest Danyl performance that I have seen, but Danyl is sitting comfortable for next week and maybe the competition overall.

Joe

Sway – Michael Buble version

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Joe was one of the starts of last weeks show. He did well again this week with some added choreography. One of the best performances of the night. A real contender to win.

Lucie

My Funny Valentine – Ella Fitzgerald

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A song that exposes mistakes, how would Lucie do?

Lucie sang beautifully and with emotion. The song was one of the hardest of the evening and Lucie took it all in her stride. Lucie should be safe again, but can she win? I am not sure.

John and Edward

She Bangs – Ricky Martin

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John & Edward win the luck of the draw … the last act of the show usually picks up a good few more votes simply because they are focussed in people’s minds when the voting lines open.

Without even hearing their performance after the break, I suspect that they will be safely into next week barring a car crash performance.

So …. the performance.  It pains me to say it, but that was their best performance yet. HOWEVER, the extended choreography is being done to divert from the poorest vocals in the competition. They don’t deserve to take the place away from a true singer.

Conclusion :

Generally a big step from most acts, but for me the poorest acts of the evening were Lloyd, Stacey and John & Edward.

However, it remains to be seen whether Rachel has endeared herself to the UK public as yet.

My bottom two predictions are Lloyd and Stacey …. though Rachel could still creep in to the bottom two.

Well, I can feel pretty smug with myself for correctly predicting the bottom two performances this week.

The only flaw in my prediction was that I thought that nationalistic support would prop Rikki up with loads of votes that he didn’t actually deserve. This time, Scotland seems to have gotten it right though as neither Rikki nor Rachel shone in the sing-offs.

As for the judges decision …. I think that the voting situation this week was a farce because it effectively came down to a single judge’s opinion, rather than a minimum of two.

That said, I found myself agreeing with Simon that the right two were in the sing-off … I would even give John and Edward a bye from this week (though I wish it were a goodbye). John and Edward do however have to go soon; this is a singing contest and they just can’t sing.

At the end of the day, I believe that Simon saw that Rachel is pretty young and inexperienced, but without bad habits, whereas Rikki still came out each week and felt like a pub singer each time.

I don’t think that Rachel has a chance of winning, especially as she hasn’t clicked with the UK public, but she definitely deserved to be brought back from the head to head with Rikki Loney,

Lucie
How Will I Know- Whitney Houston
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Not the most powerful impression from Lucie this week.  What should be a belter just didn’t have the oomph required to sell this song. However, we do need to remember that this was the opening act and that normally does generate loads of nerves which didn’t actually show through. But …. not quite enough shown right now to convince that Lucie can win.

Olly
Fool in love – Tamyra Gray from American Idol version
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A very accomplished performance from Olly .. he should drop a few points in the betting as this was an extremely good overall performance.

Miss Frank
All The Man That I Need- Whitney Houston
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Very shaky opening solo vocals from Miss Frank. For me it didn’t get that much better …. whilst the harmonies were well written, the performance didn’t gel for me. The harmonies didn’t tie up. They are at a slight disadvantage due to Louis’s absence, but will the public be forgiving of a below par performance? Could be a bottom two performance. 

Rachel
If I Were A Boy – Beyonce
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Freed from the pressures of opening the show as for last week Rachel has the chance to shine. Unfortunately for me, there were some tuning issues throughout and the performance overall seemed quite lacklustre. Given that the public didn’t like Rachel last week placing her in the bottom two, she could be in trouble again this week after that performance.

Joe
Where Do Broken Hearts Go- Whitney Houston
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Joe really impressed me in week 1 … could he do it again? Probably the first act this evening to sing with real passion he absolutely owned the stage. Joe reminds me very much of a young Donny Osmond and look where he ended up!! Joe is absolutely safe this week and could be a candidate to win the competition.

Danyl
I Didn’t Know My Own Strength – Whitney Houston
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Danyl came in for a lot of criticism about over-confidence and barbed comments about his sexuality last week. If that rattled him, then it certainly didn’t change his confident performance style. Personally I wasn’t keen on the song (or was it unfamiliarity or that I couldn’t hear the words being rhymed off very quickly), but it was a great performance and Danyl is the front runner now in my eyes.

Lloyd
Bleeding Love- Leona Lewis
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A big song for a young Lloyd to sing. Lloyd reminds me very much of Adam Rickitt who left Coronation Street to try a career in pop, but disappeared from view. Lloyd’s version of the song just didn’t have the impact of Leona’s and the song just washed around with no great memory. I think that Lloyd will be safe, but needs to perform bigger and better in future weeks to survive.

John and Edward
Oops I Did It Again- Britney Spears
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John and Edward annoy me …. and half the population. They are clearly the Chico of 2009, but without the likeability or any vocal talent. With a reference to the Titanic in their act, they got it right … and deserve to sink to the bottom without a trace, but I don’t think that they will just yet (sadly!)

Rikki
R.E.S.P.E.C.T- Aretha Franklin
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Rikki had a bad week in week 1, but was lucky to avoid the bottom two and needed to step up his game. I believe that he did, but once again the song seemed bigger than he is. Rikki also still appears to showing off his pub and club background in some of the performance mannerisms. Rikki could be bottom two tonight.

Jamie
Hurt – Christina Aguilera
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I have been concerned that Jamie could be a one-trick rocker … we have seen that from other X Factor rockers in the past and they don’t last. Tonight is a night to disprove that thought. I thought the song choice was a good one to try and demonstrate versatility, and it was a very good performance. Yet strangely for me and being in complete opposition to the judges, the performance didn’t convince me that Jamie is completely versatile.

Undoubtedly Jamie’s performance this week deserves to secure his passage into next weeks show, but I am not convinced that he can win the competition. 

Stacey
At Last – Beyonce version
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Stacey delivered a great performance last week, but suffers from big confidence issues. Last performance of the evening is often the slot given to guarantee extra votes as the act sticks in people’s minds.

It seemed one of the weaker performances that we have seen from Stacey … there were a few vocal and tuning wobbles that may be down to the confidence issues. It was however a pleasing performance although there were stilted moments. Stacey probably did enough to get through with the extra tailwind of the extra votes from being last act.

Overall Assessment :

Generally, I thought that the performances slipped a notch this week, partly explained by the Diva Theme which put so many outside their comfort zones.

I thought that Miss Frank, Rikki, John and Edward, Lloyd, Stacey and  Rebecca ALL had performances that could take them into the danger zone.

However, my two for the judges vote feels like it should be Rikki and Rebecca. My hunch is that the Scottish vote will save Rikki and young Lloyd will take his place and ultimately be voted out .. on age grounds of not being ready.

Update: Why have I started calling Rachel by the Rebecca name? I knew who I meant … I hope that you did too.

Pretty late in announcing them this week, but here are the song choices for the remaining 11 acts following Kandi Rain’s departure last week.

Not surprising to see Whitney Houston songs as she sings live during the results show tomorrow evening.

DIVA WEEK

Rachel
If I Were A Boy – Beyonce
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Stacey
At Last – Beyonce version
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Lucie
How Will I Know- Whitney Houston
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Joe
Where Do Broken Hearts Go- Whitney Houston
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Rikki
R.E.S.P.E.C.T- Aretha Franklin
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Lloyd
Bleeding Love- Leona Lewis
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Danyl
I Didn’t Know My Own Strength – Whitney Houston
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Jamie
Hurt – Christina Aguilera
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Olly
Fool in love – Tamyra Gray from American Idol version
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John and Edward
Oops I Did It Again- Britney Spears
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Miss Frank
All The Man That I Need- Whitney Houston
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A bit of an upset for me tonight .. not necessarilly that Kandy Rain went out, but that John and Edward weren’t in the bottom two.

I literally could not believe it when the Twins were the first act that was announced safe. That left me with a £10 loss on my bet that they would be evicted from the show this evening without the satisfaction of even seeing them fight out in the bottom two places.

So … I got a 50% strike rate this time in my prediction for the bottom two, but sadly no bet on Kandy Rain to cover my loss on the twins.

I must admit that when the Twins left one of my bottom two choices vacant, I thought that the slot would go to either Rachel or Ricki. Rachel didn’t shine as she can when opening the show yesterday and Rikki’s song choice was awful for him … On last nights performance, he deserved to pick up low votes.Rachel was unlucky to be selected as show opener.

I expect better from Rikki and on top of better song choices and performances one extra thing that will keep Rikki around a few more weeks in my opinion is that the Scots will swing right behind their sole chance of winning the X Factor in 2009. We have seen that all too often in the past in having controversial winners that later disappear into obscurity (Michelle McManus and Davie Sneddon). History can repeat itself. That’s why I have a few quid bet at 50/1 via betfair.com on Rikki.

(The nice thing about betfair.com is that you don’t need to gamble all the way to the end of a long running event like the X Factor … nor do you need to ultimately back the winner, because if you bet at high odds, then you can watch for an opportunity to sell your bet (lay) at lower odds and lock in the profit or even recover your stake to have a no risk gamble.)

The sing off was understandably nervous from both acts and Rachel seemed most affected.

Dermott announced that Louis’s proxy vote to save the Group would still be in forcegiven his absence as a result of Stephen Gately’s death in Majorca. (Academic, but I wonder what would have happened had two groups been involved?)

The votes went predictably in my opinion with Louis’s proxy vote sending Rachal home and the Girls voting to send Kandy Rain home. Simon through Kandy Rain a lifeline by voting to send Rachel home leading to a judges deadlock and the viewing publics vote brought completely into play.

So …. Goodbye Kandy Rain. They have had a difficult few weeks with the tabloids, but the truth is that they just didn’t have the talent necessary to succeed and to win over the public.

Now we need the public to get switched on and stop voting for the talentless twins!!

It would be interesting how the voting pattern could change if we were asked to vote for the act we want to send home rather than the act to save. I think that could demonstrate quite different results.

Here is my assessment on the first live show :

Rachel (Girls)

Opened the show with Robbie Williams’ Let me entertain you. Seemed a bit of a shaky performance to me, with the lower notes not appearing to suit her vocal register too well.

Her choreography was decent and overall the performance was strong and entertaining considering it was a difficult slot to fill as opening act.

Kandy Rain (Groups)

Looking good on stage, apart from the hideous Minnie Mouse /catwoman hairstyle and looking a bit Playboy bunny-esque. Their song choice was Robert Palmer’s ‘Addicted to Love’.

The vocals were not the greatest with some cracking early on in the track. A lot of criticism from Danni and Cheryl too over the sexy image.

Olly (Over 25s)

Probably the strongest start of the evening with ‘She’s the one’ which felt a little exposed in the quieter opening section however Olly really warmed to the piece and appears to be a front-runner at this stage of the competition after a very competent performance.

Rikki (Boys)

Can’t quite place the song Rikki was singing. and it wasn’t a great song choice in my opinion, but as a difficult song to sing, Rikki did an outstanding job and is worth a punt at generous odds of 55/1 this evening. Update: Song was ‘Back to Black’ (Amy Winehouse).

Stacey (Girls)

Singing ‘The Scientist’ from Coldplay, Stacey performed with a touch of nerves evident in her voice, but captivated the audience with a great performance. Stacey should be around for at least a few more weeks.

Miss Frank (Groups)

Singing ‘Who’s Loving You’ from the Jackson 5, Miss Frank pulled off a terrific performance and wowed the audience with a strong performance minus the rap. They should easily be winner of this category based on current performances …. and they can only get better as they grow to understand each other having been a fabricated band during the audition process.

Jamie (Over 25s)

Not the greatest start to ‘Get It On’ from Power Station and T-Rex, the first rock song of the evening. Jamie only seems to come to life with the rock performances. Whilst very good, we maybe need to question whether he is a one trick pony.

Lloyd (Boys)

The youngest in the competition at only 16 years old, we heard a few wobbly notes early on in common with the preceding contestants in his performance of Justin Timberlake’s ‘Cry Me A River’. The Choroegraphy looked a bit wooden, but given the chance he should get better at the overall performance.

Lucie (Girls)

Singing Leona Lewis’s ‘ Footprints In The Sand’, she has big footsteps to follow in. A big song to have your for your first live show, she pulled it off pretty flawlessly and served only to confirm her status as a potential front runner to win and the current bookies favourite.

John and Edward (Groups)

Singing Robbie Williams ‘ Rock DJ’, I already want the boys to fail …. they are the most irritating act ever … even more than Chico, and they haven’shown ANY vocal talent before this evening.

Solo vocals appalling continuing the trend, but a very gimmicky stage routine and a sort of cutesy factor may have the girls voting to keep them in, but they should be the first act out by a mile.

Joe (Boys)

Another Robbie Williams track – ‘No Regrets’. Another big song for a younster, but a very strong opening continued to allow him to shine throughout. Likely to be another strong hearthrob vote for the girls, but this time at least Joe has the talent to keep him in play for many many weeks and another potential winner.

Danyl (Over 25s)

A powerful song choice coming with ‘And I Am Telling You’ recorded by Jennifer Hudson and already featured a few times during the audition process.

A superb performance getting many of the audience to their feet for a standing ovation. Danyl is a sure bet to survive for a long part of this competition.

Who are my bottom two this week? I think it has to be Kandy Rain and the Terrible Twins John and Edward, making it likely that Louis will be the first judge to lose an act tomorrow evening in the new show format.

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X Factor Song Lists 10 October 2009

Rachel
Robbie Williams – Let Me Entertain You
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Stacey
Coldplay – The Scientist
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Lucie
Leona Lewis – Footprints In The Sand
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Joe
Robbie Williams – No Regrets
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Rikki
Amy Winehouse – Back To Black
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Lloyd
Justin Timberlake – Cry Me A River
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Danyl
And I Am Telling You – Jennifer Hudson
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Jamie
Get It On – Power Station
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Olly
Robbie Williams – She’s The One
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John and Edward
Robbie Williams – Rock DJ
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Miss Frank
Who’s Loving You – Jackson 5
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Kandy Rain
Addicted To Love – Tina Turner
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Well … it is that time of the year again when X Factor mania really starts to hit.

Yes, the bootcamp is over and the judges have been assigned to their categories …. and the top 12 acts have been chosen.

A couple of opportunities strike me immediately from the opening rounds of betting :

Week 1 First elimination :

John and Edward have to be my tip for the first drop. It is weird just how they won through to the live finals as they haven’t actually shown much vocal talent at any of the elimination stages. What they do have is a talent for annoying people immensely. Therefore based upon straw polls I have conducted, I can’t see too many votes coming from outside Ireland.

Louis Walsh appears to be the only judge so far to have seen anything of merit in them with Simon Cowell being very vocal that he would drop them at his earliest opportunity.

Whilst I am aware of the patriotism effect, I still think that there is an excellent chance that the Twins will find themselves in the bottom two, in which case I think that it will take a very bad performance from the other bottom two act to change judge’s minds.

With odds around 3.3 on Betfair right now (That is, bet £10 and get £33 returned [incl. your stake] if you win), this seems generous to me.

So … my number 1 bet is for the Twins of John and Edward to leave the X Factor this weekend.

Early Value Bet

Rikki is the camp, quirky Scottish male vocalist who has performed pretty well on each occasion and appears to be very likeable.

Unlike my view on the Irish patriotic vote, the Scottish vote very patriotically (Remember how far Michelle McManus and Davie Sneddon went in similar competitions!). Even the much maligned McDonald Brothers just missed out on a semifinal place in 2006 despite all the badmouthing from Simon each week.

At current odds of 46, although I believe that there are better acts, this looks like a good bet to win with the intent of trading out early at a profit a few weeks down the line. (You can trade bets on betting exchanges such as Betfair and they often give a free bet to get started. Check Betfair site for the latest offers.)