X Factor 2009

 

Well … it is that time of the year again when X Factor mania really starts to hit.

Yes, the bootcamp is over and the judges have been assigned to their categories …. and the top 12 acts have been chosen.

A couple of opportunities strike me immediately from the opening rounds of betting :

Week 1 First elimination :

John and Edward have to be my tip for the first drop. It is weird just how they won through to the live finals as they haven’t actually shown much vocal talent at any of the elimination stages. What they do have is a talent for annoying people immensely. Therefore based upon straw polls I have conducted, I can’t see too many votes coming from outside Ireland.

Louis Walsh appears to be the only judge so far to have seen anything of merit in them with Simon Cowell being very vocal that he would drop them at his earliest opportunity.

Whilst I am aware of the patriotism effect, I still think that there is an excellent chance that the Twins will find themselves in the bottom two, in which case I think that it will take a very bad performance from the other bottom two act to change judge’s minds.

With odds around 3.3 on Betfair right now (That is, bet £10 and get £33 returned [incl. your stake] if you win), this seems generous to me.

So … my number 1 bet is for the Twins of John and Edward to leave the X Factor this weekend.

Early Value Bet

Rikki is the camp, quirky Scottish male vocalist who has performed pretty well on each occasion and appears to be very likeable.

Unlike my view on the Irish patriotic vote, the Scottish vote very patriotically (Remember how far Michelle McManus and Davie Sneddon went in similar competitions!). Even the much maligned McDonald Brothers just missed out on a semifinal place in 2006 despite all the badmouthing from Simon each week.

At current odds of 46, although I believe that there are better acts, this looks like a good bet to win with the intent of trading out early at a profit a few weeks down the line. (You can trade bets on betting exchanges such as Betfair and they often give a free bet to get started. Check Betfair site for the latest offers.)