David Cameron's Diary

• the worst floods in living memory


• Terrorist atacks in London & Glasgow


• Foot & Mouth outbreaks....not once, but twice


• Blue Tongue Virus


• Economic Meltdown arising from the global Credit squeeze and another first in living memory with a run on a British bank (Northern Rock) abated

With my name, you might not expect me to say this, but I think that Gordon has shown half-decent leadership skills to ge us through all this. Sure there is a fair bit of criticism and talk of back-pedalling and creating policy on the hoof, but I think he is starting to get comfortable in the demands of the role.

Gordon is now showing some signs of sinking into a comfortable No. 10 armchair role and arguably a touch of complacency....and that may be somewhat true with Labours commanding poll lead until this week

However, Gordon is certainly a canny Scot. In the past week he has been out on "motivational" visits to Iraq as well as visiting high-profile new NHS units demonstrating the benefits of Labour investment in the Health Service.

Brown will not be unaware that he currently operates with electorate backing for an old Blair manifesto and if he wabts to proceed with his own agenda, he will need to seek the approval of the British Electorate very soon. He cannot enjoy a honeymoon period very much longer without setting out his own stall and let the public decide if that is what they want from him

All things considered and especially with the recent high-profile visits being seen as political spin and pre-election campaigning, I expect Brown to announce an election to take place on either 6th or 13th December this year

BetFair are an online betting site that are, at time of writing offering a double-your-money opportunity on a December 2007 election. If you agree with me that a pre-Christmas election is pretty much a certainty and want to take a punt on that, you need to think about doing it this weekend as Gordon will need to make a decision over this very weekend

I just can't see him wanting to go into 2008 without clear public backing and I believe that he will call an election early next week

Am I feeling confident? Well, pretty much so!! I have bet my own money on a December election too. .....and if you followed my advice on X Factor last year, you would have been a winner as well.

So, may the best man win....Gordon, David or Menzies (no one else stands a chance in my opinion) ....and hopefully all you folks that risk a small punt too will be winners (but of course in politics, I can give no absolute guarantees!!).

UPDATE 7th October: Well, blow me down. The one thing that I didn't think Gordon Brown was, was a coward. I have no doubts that we WERE heading for a General Election otherwise Brown would have quashed the speculation early on and would not have been having so many high-profile visits or bringing out key announcements.

Clearly the latest polls have rattled him and he wants to be assured of holding the Premiership spot a bit longer. Watching both Brown and Alistair Darling this morning, it seems clear that an election was seriously in the radar. Brown maneouvred pretty well to close the dicussion by tackling it directly and admitting that it was considered, but Darling seemed to handle it evasively....I think I have definitely decided that Alistair Darling is nowhere near a straight-talker, even by politician standards.

Brown now appears to have ruled out any election before 2009.

# posted by David Cameron @ Friday, October 05, 2007