05-Oct-2007
Betting Exchanges: Create Winning opportunities
Last year during the X Factor Final, I called the result just right, but what if you are not absolutely sure? Is it good to have all your eggs in one basket
I have great fun trying to make a modest profit out of an event and enjoy the convenience of placing my bets via my armchair. I never bet more than I can afford to lose, but try and guarantee a profit even if it is small
Watch out for my X Factor predictions for this year.... hopefully, I can call it just right again
But how do you guarantee profit with ANY outcome. Is this even possible? Of course it is, or there would be no bookmakers in the world. As proof, have a look at this screenshot
What I have attempted to show here is that I have actually created a scenario where I have guaranteed a minimum win of ~£100 even if 1000/1 absolute no-hopers win. Yes, even if we did get to the absurd scenario where the big-gun Ferrari and McLaren were both to be thrown out of the F1 Driver Championship this year and Takuro Sato were to sprout wings and cross the finishing line in front of everyone else. Yes....in every scenario, I would win a minimum of ~£100. The green numbers under the drivers name represents my profit should that driver win the championship.
[Note: Click on any of the screen impressions to see full detail screens]
But how did this start.....? Well, it really did start from the single £3 bet that I have highlighted above, betting on Lewis Jamilton to win at decimal odds of 18.5.
And how did I turn the £3 into a minimum £100 winnings? Well, to be honest, it has taken the whole F1 Season to do that, but it starts from that single premise that I told you early on.....BET HIGH, LAY LOWer. Although there have been very many bets since the start of the season, the following screen highlights my very next bet.
You will notice that this is a different bet....on this occasion, I took someone else's bet that Hamilton would win the championship i.e. rather than betting that Hamilton would WIN as I did in my first bet....I was actually betting that Hamilton would LOSE. But I took the £5 bet at decimal odds of 11.0 meaning that I would lose £50 (11-1[stake]= 10 * £5) versus the (18.5-1[stake]= 17.5 * £3) = £52.50 that I would win from the original stake. i.e. straight away, I guaranteed £2.50 if Hamilton won, but £2.00 if anyone other than Hamilton won because I would take their £5 stake versus the £3 that I had bet on Hamilton. It was however crucial for this strategy to work that I realised early on that the market had under-estimated Hamilton's chance of winning and I realised that this was a value bet. The same is true for every potential win.... recognise where you can BET HIGH and LAY LOWer as the market develops. With Hamilton, the market dropped with every race, reflecting my confidence in him and giving me ample opportunity to trade in him.
In essence the whole season carred on in this vein, with me trading betting odds versus laying odds. Additionally, where I layed for more money than I had pesrsonally bet, I was able to bet more because I was also able to bet on the same driver using the incremental money that someone bet with me on that same driver i.e. in this first trading circumstance, I had £2 of someone else's money to bet with. [their £5 - my £3 staked]....another strength of this strategy.
A great example of trading presented itself at China qualifying towards the end of the F1 season.... Hamilton was under review for potentially dangerous driving in Japan and his latest odds actually drifted [from 1.09] to 1.25 based upon the risk that he would lose championship position. My own view (and I accept that it was a risk, but still my carefully considered opinion) was that Hamilton would escape punishment and I bet more on Hamilton on his way up, and took odds at 1.18.
The judgement that I expected came through and Hamilton's odds fell to 1.09 again, allowing me to lay double what I bet yesterday and increase my profit should Hamilton fail to win the Championship.
Of course at this point, the decision is personal whether to lay (I don't think Hamilton will win) or to congratulate oneself on getting better market odds on Hamilton(I think he WILL win).
The one observation that I will make is that this fun (or opportunity) cannot be enjoyed at a traditional bookmaker; they will only allow you to MAKE bets; they will NOT allow you to TAKE bets and that is crucial to this betting strategy.
I encourage you to open an account with BetFair betting exchange who allow both making and taking of bets for this strategy to succeed.
If you stick with me until just before Christmas and watch the blog live during the Saturday live shows, I will try and guide you through the X Factor maze this year and try to recreate the profit I made last year and give you the opportunity to share in that.
As a final flourish, please see my latest betting position here. I have placed "pending" bets at odds that I am prepared to exchange [I can be asleep and if these odds are what people are prepared to bet at, then these will automatically trigger]. These odds are considerably lower than the bets that I have currently made.
I would draw your attention to the amount bet versus [considerably lower than] the amount laid on the drivers.... and especially versus that £3 initial seed bet. Eveything spiralled from risking only that £3 that I mentioned at the outset. There was really little or no money invested by me after that.
[Ignore the account balance between the screen shots....in the interim I made other bets outside of F1]
Betting does not have to be a big risk....indeed don't make it a big risk... the fun factor will go away if you do, and you are an idiot if you bet more than you can actually afford to lose.
So....if you would like to join me in an attempt to make X Factor fun, then do sign up with a betting exchange in the coming week before the live shows start. [My initial feeling is that Simon Cowell would like to have a Group win....we have previously had both Male & Female winners. I don't think the real youngsters can stand up to live TV, but it may be prudent not to jump on that just yet till we have gauged live performances]
So.....in summary, how does this strategy work? What are the golden rules?
1. You need a betting exchange account where you can both bet and lay your bets off.... a normal bookie will not work. I personally recommend BetFair although there may be others.
BetFair is a popular site whereas other betting exchanges are less so. From my position, this means that there are more people willing to both MAKE and TAKE bets on BetFair giving a good liquidity and better opportunity to trade bets.
As additional incentive to you and my special reason for recommending BetFair, is that in my experience they often by invitation offer a sort of "if you bet £5 or £10" on their specified bets "BetFair will add that amount to your account next day" to relative newcomers... both my wife and I received 3-4 * free £5-£10 bets [bet or lay] in our first couple of months of joining [and in different timescales], though these cannot be guaranteed by me. Typical examples were Wimbledon Outright Singles Winner or outcome on a Rugby World Cup match.
So, even if you don't follow my recommended bets, you might get a few free bets on your own fancies along the way. When these free bets materialise, even if you are not very confident of the outcome, you still have the opportunity to arbitrage those bets straight away per the strategy I cover here (BET as HIGH as you can and LAY as LOW as you can) and maybe you do have to lay off at a small notional loss because of the natural bet/lay spread, but BetFair will still give you the promised cash next business day back to your account....I promise you that if you get these offers alone, that is really free and immediately withdrawable money even if you don't follow any other tips from me. It really is a no-lose proposition to enrol with BetFair even if you just sit tight and wait to see what free [refunded] bets they offer you.
2. Recognise an over-priced player in the market and back it for as much as you want to risk losing (withBetFair it is only a minimum £2 bet...if you recall, I actually started with only £3 on this occasion)
3. Lay it off at the right time without being greedy.... If you can take a bigger bet than you personally made and make a profit on all eventualities, then why not do it? You can then lockin some profit and typically re-bet at minimal differential odds. There will always be a bet/lay spread with a difference between what people are prepared to back at versus what the current odds on offer are.
4. Don't be afraid to re-back at bigger odds than you layed at. That is actually the right tactic to develop profit... remember BET HIGH, LAY LOWer...and it doesn't mattter which order... sure the F1 example was around spotting an OVER-priced candidate, but the inverse is true..... If you think the odds are too low, then that is an opportunity to LAY and bet again later at HIGHER odds using only some of your punters stake money.
5. Watch the "What-if" changes on BetFair. Before you commit to a bet, you will see that the numbers change under the candidates. You will see ">>" followed by Green [Profit on this result] or Red [Loss on this result]. Look at all potential results and be comfortable that you have profit on all the potential results that could realistically win. The ideal scenario is where you end up with an "All Green Book" i.e. no matter what the outcome, you make a profit anyway.
6. Bet on markets that you have some degree of insight. It may go without saying, but unless you have personal insight or trust someone to give you guidance, then you will not be able to judge whether the current odds are over or under pricing the candidates chance overall.
7. Watch what the market is doing. If it is relatively static, then try to bet one point higher than odds currently on offer, and when laying, don't immediately offer the full odds that have been requested.....watch some open markets to get some feel how they move. Generally, if the market is not shifting fast, then you can stick out a bit longer for better odds.
8. Keep re-assessing the market - is it mis-priced? If you think so, then try to take advantage of that - but I would still caution you to remenber/use rule 5 to guide your decision.
9. Have FUN and NEVER bet more than you are happy to lose.
If you follow all these principles, then you will have a little bit of excitement around the events that you participate [bet] in without risking anything too much in the way of your own cash.
Enjoy....and if there is anything that you would like me to add or answer, then please post a question in the blog.
I have great fun trying to make a modest profit out of an event and enjoy the convenience of placing my bets via my armchair. I never bet more than I can afford to lose, but try and guarantee a profit even if it is small
Watch out for my X Factor predictions for this year.... hopefully, I can call it just right again
But how do you guarantee profit with ANY outcome. Is this even possible? Of course it is, or there would be no bookmakers in the world. As proof, have a look at this screenshot
What I have attempted to show here is that I have actually created a scenario where I have guaranteed a minimum win of ~£100 even if 1000/1 absolute no-hopers win. Yes, even if we did get to the absurd scenario where the big-gun Ferrari and McLaren were both to be thrown out of the F1 Driver Championship this year and Takuro Sato were to sprout wings and cross the finishing line in front of everyone else. Yes....in every scenario, I would win a minimum of ~£100. The green numbers under the drivers name represents my profit should that driver win the championship.
[Note: Click on any of the screen impressions to see full detail screens]
But how did this start.....? Well, it really did start from the single £3 bet that I have highlighted above, betting on Lewis Jamilton to win at decimal odds of 18.5.
And how did I turn the £3 into a minimum £100 winnings? Well, to be honest, it has taken the whole F1 Season to do that, but it starts from that single premise that I told you early on.....BET HIGH, LAY LOWer. Although there have been very many bets since the start of the season, the following screen highlights my very next bet.
You will notice that this is a different bet....on this occasion, I took someone else's bet that Hamilton would win the championship i.e. rather than betting that Hamilton would WIN as I did in my first bet....I was actually betting that Hamilton would LOSE. But I took the £5 bet at decimal odds of 11.0 meaning that I would lose £50 (11-1[stake]= 10 * £5) versus the (18.5-1[stake]= 17.5 * £3) = £52.50 that I would win from the original stake. i.e. straight away, I guaranteed £2.50 if Hamilton won, but £2.00 if anyone other than Hamilton won because I would take their £5 stake versus the £3 that I had bet on Hamilton. It was however crucial for this strategy to work that I realised early on that the market had under-estimated Hamilton's chance of winning and I realised that this was a value bet. The same is true for every potential win.... recognise where you can BET HIGH and LAY LOWer as the market develops. With Hamilton, the market dropped with every race, reflecting my confidence in him and giving me ample opportunity to trade in him.
In essence the whole season carred on in this vein, with me trading betting odds versus laying odds. Additionally, where I layed for more money than I had pesrsonally bet, I was able to bet more because I was also able to bet on the same driver using the incremental money that someone bet with me on that same driver i.e. in this first trading circumstance, I had £2 of someone else's money to bet with. [their £5 - my £3 staked]....another strength of this strategy.
A great example of trading presented itself at China qualifying towards the end of the F1 season.... Hamilton was under review for potentially dangerous driving in Japan and his latest odds actually drifted [from 1.09] to 1.25 based upon the risk that he would lose championship position. My own view (and I accept that it was a risk, but still my carefully considered opinion) was that Hamilton would escape punishment and I bet more on Hamilton on his way up, and took odds at 1.18.
The judgement that I expected came through and Hamilton's odds fell to 1.09 again, allowing me to lay double what I bet yesterday and increase my profit should Hamilton fail to win the Championship.
Of course at this point, the decision is personal whether to lay (I don't think Hamilton will win) or to congratulate oneself on getting better market odds on Hamilton(I think he WILL win).
The one observation that I will make is that this fun (or opportunity) cannot be enjoyed at a traditional bookmaker; they will only allow you to MAKE bets; they will NOT allow you to TAKE bets and that is crucial to this betting strategy.
I encourage you to open an account with BetFair betting exchange who allow both making and taking of bets for this strategy to succeed.
If you stick with me until just before Christmas and watch the blog live during the Saturday live shows, I will try and guide you through the X Factor maze this year and try to recreate the profit I made last year and give you the opportunity to share in that.
As a final flourish, please see my latest betting position here. I have placed "pending" bets at odds that I am prepared to exchange [I can be asleep and if these odds are what people are prepared to bet at, then these will automatically trigger]. These odds are considerably lower than the bets that I have currently made.
I would draw your attention to the amount bet versus [considerably lower than] the amount laid on the drivers.... and especially versus that £3 initial seed bet. Eveything spiralled from risking only that £3 that I mentioned at the outset. There was really little or no money invested by me after that.
[Ignore the account balance between the screen shots....in the interim I made other bets outside of F1]
Betting does not have to be a big risk....indeed don't make it a big risk... the fun factor will go away if you do, and you are an idiot if you bet more than you can actually afford to lose.
So....if you would like to join me in an attempt to make X Factor fun, then do sign up with a betting exchange in the coming week before the live shows start. [My initial feeling is that Simon Cowell would like to have a Group win....we have previously had both Male & Female winners. I don't think the real youngsters can stand up to live TV, but it may be prudent not to jump on that just yet till we have gauged live performances]
So.....in summary, how does this strategy work? What are the golden rules?
1. You need a betting exchange account where you can both bet and lay your bets off.... a normal bookie will not work. I personally recommend BetFair although there may be others.
BetFair is a popular site whereas other betting exchanges are less so. From my position, this means that there are more people willing to both MAKE and TAKE bets on BetFair giving a good liquidity and better opportunity to trade bets.
As additional incentive to you and my special reason for recommending BetFair, is that in my experience they often by invitation offer a sort of "if you bet £5 or £10" on their specified bets "BetFair will add that amount to your account next day" to relative newcomers... both my wife and I received 3-4 * free £5-£10 bets [bet or lay] in our first couple of months of joining [and in different timescales], though these cannot be guaranteed by me. Typical examples were Wimbledon Outright Singles Winner or outcome on a Rugby World Cup match.
So, even if you don't follow my recommended bets, you might get a few free bets on your own fancies along the way. When these free bets materialise, even if you are not very confident of the outcome, you still have the opportunity to arbitrage those bets straight away per the strategy I cover here (BET as HIGH as you can and LAY as LOW as you can) and maybe you do have to lay off at a small notional loss because of the natural bet/lay spread, but BetFair will still give you the promised cash next business day back to your account....I promise you that if you get these offers alone, that is really free and immediately withdrawable money even if you don't follow any other tips from me. It really is a no-lose proposition to enrol with BetFair even if you just sit tight and wait to see what free [refunded] bets they offer you.
2. Recognise an over-priced player in the market and back it for as much as you want to risk losing (withBetFair it is only a minimum £2 bet...if you recall, I actually started with only £3 on this occasion)
3. Lay it off at the right time without being greedy.... If you can take a bigger bet than you personally made and make a profit on all eventualities, then why not do it? You can then lockin some profit and typically re-bet at minimal differential odds. There will always be a bet/lay spread with a difference between what people are prepared to back at versus what the current odds on offer are.
4. Don't be afraid to re-back at bigger odds than you layed at. That is actually the right tactic to develop profit... remember BET HIGH, LAY LOWer...and it doesn't mattter which order... sure the F1 example was around spotting an OVER-priced candidate, but the inverse is true..... If you think the odds are too low, then that is an opportunity to LAY and bet again later at HIGHER odds using only some of your punters stake money.
5. Watch the "What-if" changes on BetFair. Before you commit to a bet, you will see that the numbers change under the candidates. You will see ">>" followed by Green [Profit on this result] or Red [Loss on this result]. Look at all potential results and be comfortable that you have profit on all the potential results that could realistically win. The ideal scenario is where you end up with an "All Green Book" i.e. no matter what the outcome, you make a profit anyway.
6. Bet on markets that you have some degree of insight. It may go without saying, but unless you have personal insight or trust someone to give you guidance, then you will not be able to judge whether the current odds are over or under pricing the candidates chance overall.
7. Watch what the market is doing. If it is relatively static, then try to bet one point higher than odds currently on offer, and when laying, don't immediately offer the full odds that have been requested.....watch some open markets to get some feel how they move. Generally, if the market is not shifting fast, then you can stick out a bit longer for better odds.
8. Keep re-assessing the market - is it mis-priced? If you think so, then try to take advantage of that - but I would still caution you to remenber/use rule 5 to guide your decision.
9. Have FUN and NEVER bet more than you are happy to lose.
If you follow all these principles, then you will have a little bit of excitement around the events that you participate [bet] in without risking anything too much in the way of your own cash.
Enjoy....and if there is anything that you would like me to add or answer, then please post a question in the blog.
Labels: Betfair, betting, betting exchanges, F1, Hamilton. X Factor
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